how many months since may 14 2022

we could not do what we do without your support. Copyright With Messages, users can now edit or recall recently sent messages, and mark conversations as unread to revisit them later. information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely. [Previously noted] Consider that recent reporting is in context of the sharply negative May 13th annual benchmark revisions to the series, which confirmed that the U.S. Economy not only was much weaker than previously estimated, coming into the Pandemic-driven economic collapse, but also that what still should show as an incomplete Recovery also had held well shy of previously headlined activity. The Committee is highly attentive to inflation risks. The Minneapolis Fed study found that, on average, they reduced their hours by 10 hours a week; using that number and a 40-hour work week, we can assume that these workers reduced their hours by 25%. WebSome information on this website may be out-of-date following the death of Queen Elizabeth. WebThe all items less food and energy index rose 6.3 percent over the last 12 months. With a new dual-core accelerometer capable of detecting G-force measurements of up to 256Gs and a new high dynamic range gyroscope, Crash Detection on iPhone can now detect a severe car crash and automatically dial emergency services when a user is unconscious or unable to reach their iPhone. Using a longitudinal survey, it found that 24.1% of people who have contracted COVID-19 experienced symptoms for three months or more, which the author defined as long Covid.3And according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, about 70% of Americans have contracted COVID-19. STILL AT FOUR-PLUS DECADE HIGHS, INFLATION PROBLEMS LIKELY WILL SOAR ANEW (updated December 9th). Markets swung wildly on Thursday after another hotter-than-expected inflation report cemented expectations for more bumper interest rate increases from the Federal Reserve that some investors worry could destabilize the financial system. Unadjusted, year-to-year, the October 2022 Cass Freight Index annual change slowed to 2.9%, from 4.8% in September. The A16 Bionic chip in iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max is generations ahead of the competition, and unlocks unparalleled experiences like the Dynamic Island, powers all-day battery life. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 3-3/4 to 4 percent. With gasoline prices beginning to rebound in October, look for an intensified, renewed upturn in Energy Inflation in coming months, with a resulting new high in the FD-Goods Inflation by late Fourth-Quarter 2022. Data on the conditions prevalence was limited, so the report used various studies to make a conservative estimate: 1.6 million full-time equivalent workers could be out of work due to long Covid. The following chart shows the weekly number of deaths between week 16 and week 43 of 2022 and the 2015-2019 five-year average number of deaths between week 16 and week 43 . Twitter. While here in the United States, the Federal Reserve has primary responsibility in price stability, our administration is committed to doing what we can to bring down costs for families, including by addressing supply chain challenges and lowering the costs of essentials like health care, Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen said as she met with European officials in Washington. There is no other conclusion that can be found for the fact mortality rates per 100,000 are the lowest among the unvaccinated other than that the Covid-19 injections are killing people. Unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted, November 2019 November 2022 Percent 125,000 130,000 135,000 140,000 145,000 150,000 155,000 160,000 Nov-19 May-20 Nov-20May-21 Nov-21 May . In one case, a 26-year-old Black male partying with friends died after taking opiates, cocaine and benzodiazepines. Separately, the broader Unemployment Rate U.6 already has defined out of existence, a large number of discouraged workers, who lost their jobs during the Pandemic, and who are not looking for work, at present, because they believe there are no jobs to be had. August-to-September changes in a selection of categories of the Consumer Price Index. (December 9th) NOVEMBER 2022 PRODUCER PRICE INDEX -- November 2022 Finished Goods Producer Price Index (PPI), the only meaningful component of the currently published headline series [created in 2009] showed somewhat slowing annual inflation, with surging food inflation more than offset by a continuing decline in energy prices (Bureau of Labor Statistics - BLS). Third-Quarter 2022 ShadowStats Alternate GDP showed parallel, trade-distorted annualized real growth of 0.6%, up from the prior two quarters contractions of 2.6% (-2.6%) and 3.6% (-3.6%), but still shy by 1.5% (-1.5%) of ever recovering its Pre-Pandemic Peak level. The number of unemployed persons was essentially unchanged at 6.0 million in November. The site is secure. As Dr. David Kaufman, a physician who has spent years treating post-viral illnesses, including long Covid, told me, The post-pandemic crisis cannot be addressed without thousands more physicians encouraged, trained, and supported to treat patients with these chronic complex diseases., Of course, physicians need treatments to offer, and for that, we need research into the causes of enduring post-Covid illness. January 2021 Annual Growth in Money Supply M1 and M2 Surged to Respective Record Highs of 69.7% and 25.8%, Despite Some Downside Benchmark Revisions That will be reviewed and detailed anew in the pending Commentary. FLASH (November 29th, released November 23rd): October 2022 New-Home Sales gained in the month, on top of downside revisions to August and September sales, yet continuing to crash on early track for sixth-straight quarter of year-to-year quarterly contraction, and in the context of strong hurricane rebound in the October numbers, a possible third-consecutive quarter-to-quarter contraction. Third-Quarter 2022 Building Permits contracted an unrevised, annualized quarterly pace of 28.7% (-28.7%), following a 23.6% (-23.6%) plunge in Second-Quarter 2022 activity, with year-to-year change turning negative by 5.0% (-5.0%). The number of unsheltered people in Maricopa county, which includes the state capital Phoenix, has at least tripled since 2016. Again, an updated review and discussion follows in pending No. ShadowStats standardly removes growth due to inflation from the headline Nominal Retail Sales series, reporting instead Real Retail Sales in real, inflation-adjusted terms, deflated by the seasonally-adjusted Consumer Price Index (CPI-U), as otherwise calculated and published by the St. Louis Federal Reserve. FLASH: November 2nd. that labor force participation has dropped by around 1.3% across the entire 16- to 64-year-old population (not just those who are working), and that the majority of that impact is from the rise in long-term sicknesswhich he suspected was long Covid. Extended numerical detail and graphics are found on the ALTERNATE DATA Tab (see the links ribbon at the top of the www.ShadowStats.com home page screen), and expanded in pending No. Watch the monthly numbers ahead for a beginning bounce back in consumer energy costs. This compares to 517 deaths for the whole of 2021 and 596 in 2022, according to the medical examiners annual reports. Disappointing inflation data keeps Democrats on defense ahead of midterm elections. Previously discussed here, and eventually of great significance in the domestic, broad economic picture, September 2022 Industrial Production Capacity Utilization -- a traditional and fundamental indicator of the regular economic cycle initially recovered its August 2018 business-cycle peak of 80.32%, for the first time, with an initial reading of 80.34% in September 2022, but that revised to 80.06% in the October 2022 reporting, with headline October declining to 79.88%. of disability, which will likely identify some cases of long Covid, but almost certainly not all. Prices for some items fell on a monthly basis, including milk and eggs, which had risen sharply earlier this year. 1 priority is repealing the Inflation Reduction Act, Mr. Biden said. The fund supports homeowners with a household income at or below 150% of the area median income who are now grappling with unforeseen financial hardships due to COVID. The Department of Labor has been clear in its guidance that long Covid can qualify as a disability under the Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA), thereby making those workers eligible for workplace accommodations. The speed at which this economic burden grows will depend on three factors: Unfortunately, the latest news on these is not good. FOMC Has Trouble Forecasting Inflation One Quarter Ahead, Let Alone Two Years Ahead More than 30 people were hit and killed by cars, including a 37-year-old woman who was struck while crossing the road by a vehicle that fled the scene. The ShadowStats outlook remains solid for a deepening economic downturn into 2023, reviewed here and detailed in pending Commentary No. October 14, 2022. Current U.S. Economy Remains Far from a Full Recovery Using Apples best-in-class fusion architecture to combine performance and energy savings, the chip delivers more performance with a fraction of the power compared to the competition. . WebThe first major adaptation to quote literal passages from the diary was 2014's Anne, authorised and initiated by the Anne Frank Foundation in Basel.After a two-year continuous run at the purpose-built Theater Amsterdam in the Netherlands, the play had productions in Germany and Israel.. Other adaptations of the diary include a version by Wendy Kesselman The question everyone still seems to be asking is: Why? As many as 500 homeless people died in and around Phoenix, Arizona, during the first half of 2022, with almost 10% of deaths due to homicide, according to new figures from the county medical examiners office. iOS 16 will be available as a free software update on Monday, September 12. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. However, the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention collects information on deaths involving many of the more commonly used drugs available through 2020 at a searchable database, called CDC Wonder.The NCHS also has 12 month 1461. Users only need an iPhone to sign up, and can then experience Fitness+ on iPhone, iPad, and Apple TV. Now, the supply of used cars is rebounding, and economists are looking for pre-owned vehicles to begin subtracting notably from inflation. Existing-Home Sales, continued in sharp downturn, with October 2022 activity down by a statistically significant, deepening monthly year-to-year decline of 28.4% (-28.4%), following Third-Quarter 2022 EHS in its third, consecutive quarter-to-quarter decline and its fifth consecutive year-to-year decline (NAR See the NAR details at: https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/housing-statistics/existing-home-sales ). The quad-pixel sensor also brings benefits to pro workflows, optimizing for detail in ProRAW. The chart reveals that in the last 28 weeks, there have only been two weeks where England & Wales have not recorded excess deaths. Discussed previously here, the headline third-quarter bounce in GDP activity fully was accounted for by an orchestrated, temporary flipping of what otherwise would have been a deficit in Third-Quarter Net Exports, to a surplus, directly tied to the Administrations coincident depletion and exports of much of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, pre-Election. Federal Reserve Board (FRB) policies remained in place at the November 2022 Federal Open Market Committee Meeting (November 2nd FOMC Statement and Press Conference), along with an otherwise anticipated 75-basis point (0.75%) rate hike in the Federal Funds Rate. Stacey Champion, a local advocate for better heat and housing policies, described the death toll as crushing. 1461 is anticipated in the week ahead, incorporating the latest economic, inflation, monetary (FOMC) and political developments. Producer price index percent changes for selected commodity groupings by Final Demand - Intermediate Demand category, seasonally adjusted, Table 3. Meanwhile, the European Union has given billions of euros to Ukraine since February, and has recently fashioned a package to give 8 billion euros more in financial aid over the next six months. in Economics, cum laude, from Dartmouth College in 1971, and was awarded a M.B.A. from Dartmouth's Amos Tuck School of Business Administration in 1972, where he was named an Edward Tuck Scholar. Fitness+ users will see onscreen trainer guidance and interval timing, and estimated calories burned will be used to make progress on their Move ring. WebFollow Star Magazine for the latest and breaking in celebrity, Hollywood, and entertainment news with stories, photos, and videos from the hottest stars. Core Inflation (ex-Food and Energy) gained 0.7% in October, 0.58% in September 2022,0.57% in August and 0.31% in July. WebiPhone 11 Problems: 5 Things You Need to Know. Such contrasted with respective monthly and annual changes of a 1.1% (-1.1%) contraction and a 1.3% annual gain the prior month. Resistance might decrease as a result of normal wear. Gartner Survey Reveals Marketing Budgets Have Increased to 9.5% of Overall Company Revenue in 2022. For most photos, the quad-pixel sensor combines every four pixels into one large quad pixel equivalent to 2.44 m, resulting in amazing low-light capture and keeping photo size at a practical 12MP. Thats what would get people back to work., National Research Action Plan on Long Covid, , and Congress dedicated $1.15 billion in, National Institutes of Health (NIH) funding, , and overall, the governments record on supporting such work is poor; as of 2021, the NIH had budgeted less than. More speed, more money, and more trials are needed to understand the pathophysiology of long Covid (and other post-viral illnesses) and identify treatments. In terms of SSDI approval, there are two challenges: 1) the need to show objective evidence of illness, which can be challenging for people with long Covid; and 2) the requirement that the illness is expected to last at least 12 months, as it is unclear how to demonstrate this with long Covid. Separately, consider that headline unadjusted Construction Inflation has held at unprecedented year-to-year, or otherwise near-record highs, from a series high (post-2009) of 15.68% in January 2022, to 16.17% in February, 16.45% in March, 19.12% in April, notching back to 18.89% in May, before rebounding to a 19.28% in June, a revised 23.09% in July, 22.86% in August and September 23.15% in September, easing to 19.22% in October and 18.98% in November 2022. More than 160 people who died between January and June were over 55 years old. SHADOWSTATS DAILY UPDATE - December 9th to 12th [Updated December 9th, 6:15 p.m. - Previously, the October 2022 Real Merchandise Trade Deficit widened sharply, reversing pre-election, GDP-boosting trade deficit gimmicks tied to government exports from depleting the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). Performance may be impacted by obstructions such as trees or surrounding buildings. WebObesity is a common, serious, and costly disease. The Coronation of His Majesty The King. Next Release. MONEY SUPPLY IS DRIVING THE SURGE IN INFLATION, DESPITE SOFTENING ANNUAL GROWTH: October 2022 Basic M1 Money Supply (Currency plus Checking Accounts), held 120.3% above its Pre-Pandemic Trough, minimally off peak, also holding at a 52-year high level of systemic liquidity, having absorbed and held the equivalent of 23-years of normal Monetary Stimulus in the 2.8 years since the Pandemic Shutdown. The Department of Justice is investigating the police department over the excessive use of force, discriminatory policing and inappropriate treatment of homeless people, among other allegations. For the 12 months ended in November, the index for services for intermediate demand increased 6.7 percent, the largest 12- month advance since rising 7.9 percent in May. Today, two thirds of Americans are unfortunately injected with mrna shots. O P E N I N G .. H E A D LI N E S - A sampling of the most recent ECONOMIC, INFLATION, FEDERAL RESERVE (Monetary) and POLITICAL Headlines: SHADOWSTATS GENERAL ASSESSMENT: Economic, Monetary, Inflation and Political circumstances all continue to show intensifying systemic instabilities and sharp, meaningful near-term deterioration, with rapidly mounting risk of extremely negative, albeit inflationary, economic and financial market turmoil. Now that the Administration has backed off playing its pre-Election inflation games with oil prices, watch for continuing, excessive headline inflation to resume its upside surge in the months ahead, with the U.S. Economy increasingly sacked by FOMC rate hikes. Currently, 27% of private sector workers in the U.S. (around 30 million people) lack access to any form of paid sick leave. It may also be the case that people dont know that they are eligible to apply for SSDI when they have long Covid. The improved Telephoto camera benefits from Photonic Engine, delivering up to 2x the performance in mid to low light. Ongoing background activities like Maps, Music, or a timer remain visible and interactive, and third-party apps in iOS 16 that provide information like sports scores and ride-sharing with Live Activities can take advantage of the Dynamic Island. Designed to reverse the inflation-reduction methodological gimmicks of the early 1980s, and after, the headline ShadowStats Alternate Inflation Index in the October 2022 CPI-U continued to soften, easing to 15.9% year-to-year, from 16.4% in September, 16.5% in August 16.8% in July (July to September in tandem with falling gasoline prices), previously having jumped to 17.3% in June, from 16.8% in May, versus 16.5% in April and 16.8% in March 2022, on top of the underlying headline CPI-U rebound, up from 16.0% in February, 15.6% in January, 15.1% in December 2021 and 14.9% in November. I make $80,000 and have $220,000 in student debt. Annual Boom of 5.7% in October Real Retail Sales Was Not Credible; Related Retail Employment and Consumer Goods Production Continued in Annual Decline, Despite the Gain in Freight Activity You can simply enter any past date in the start date and select the end date, or you can leave it as it is set to default todays date. but just 98% funded for this month, The Expose is fully funded by people like you & October Industrial Production declined by 0.1% (-0.1%) in the month, on top of sharp downside revisions to recent months, with last months Capacity Utilization recovery of its prior August 2018 peak level, evaporating, in conjunction with meaningful downside revisions to the last five months of production activity. (November 22nd, updating November 15th) OCTOBER 2022 MONETARY BASE -- ShadowStats estimated the October 2022 Monetary Base shrank month-to-month and year-to-year, dominated by the declining Reserve Balances at Federal Reserve Banks component, despite the Currency in Circulation component breaking to a new historic high (Federal Reserve Board - FRB, ShadowStats). 1996, chap. Mr. Biden met with his top economic advisers on Thursday for a briefing following the release of the data. Here is how the October 2022 Money Supply numbers shaped up. The downturn in Capacity Utilization from the August 2018 Peak was a traditional signal of the onset of and timing for an economic Recession in the U.S. economy, a Recession that continued into and through the onset of the Pandemic Shutdown of the U.S. economy in March 2020. The background and detail of this circumstance is reviewed and discussed in Commentaries Nos. The CPS asks about six specific manifestations of disability, which will likely identify some cases of long Covid, but almost certainly not all.2. A model poses in an editorial image shot in Portrait mode. loi codifie 14 novembre 2022 (date laquelle Lois-en-ligne est jour) redressement des soins de longue dure (Loi de 2021 sur le), L.O. Stripping out food and fuel to get a sense of underlying price trends, the so-called core index climbed by 6.6 percent, the fastest pace since 1982 and more than economists had expected. If 24.1% of them have had long Covid, 34 million working-age Americans have, at some point, had long Covid. November New-Home Sales Collapsed by a Meaningful 11.1% (-11.1%) in the Month, On Top of Major Downside Revisions to Sales in Each of the Prior Three Months On a month-to-month basis, October CPI-U inflation gained a seasonally adjusted 0.44%, following gains of 0.39% in September and 0.12% in August and, and a 0.02% (-0.02%) decline in July. Many economists expect rent increases in the Consumer Price Index to remain rapid for months to come. Headline November U.3 unemployment was unchanged, holding at a headline 3.7% (easing to 3.65% from 3.68% at the second decimal point), with U.6 Unemployment notching lower from 6.8% to 6.7% and the ShadowStats Alternate Unemployment easing from 25.5% to 24.4%, both series reflecting minimal rounding differences. We continue to see complaints about iPhone 11, iPhone 11 Pro, and iPhone 11 Pro Max problems as we push deeper into 2022. Unprecedented in 40-Plus Years of Weekly Monetary Reporting: Money Supply M1 Jumped by 14.1% in the Last Two Weeks, in a Post-Election / COVID-19 Flight to Cash, From M2 to M1 Will the Kansas Jayhawks become the first repeat champions in men's college basketball since Florida in 2006 and 2007? Headline November U.3 unemployment was unchanged, holding at a headline 3.7% (easing to 3.65% from 3.68% at the second decimal point), with U.6 Unemployment notching lower from 6.8% to 6.7% and the ShadowStats Alternate Unemployment easing from 25.5% to 24.4%, both series reflecting minimal rounding differences. WebData Brief No. The energy index increased 17.6 percent for the 12 months ending October, and the food index increased 10.9 percent over the last year; all of these increases were Web3.5 percent to 3.7 percent since March. Comfortable neither with the recent extreme benchmarkings here, nor with the inconsistent, negligible benchmarkings in the closely related Industrial Production series, I continue to review a variety of related numbers and shall report in pending No. You can simply enter any past date in the start date and select the end date, or you can leave it as it is set to default todays date. According to your bar chart mortality per 100.000 for the three age groups under 59 and 3-dosed is mostly lower than for the unvaccinated ! Pre-orders begin Friday, September 9, with availability beginning Friday, September 16. The reassessment over the path of interest rates comes as companies begin to announce their financial results for the third quarter, giving investors a chance to see how rising rates are impacting business conditions. Economic, FOMC, financial-market, political and social circumstances all continue to evolve along with the Pandemic and unfolding political circumstances. [Please note: Anyone who has questions on or would like to discuss the ShadowStats Alternate-CPI Methodologies, current circumstances or otherwise, please call me at (707) 763-5786, or e-mail me at johnwilliams@shadowstats.com; I always am happy to talk]. 1461). -- Severe Systemic structural damage from the Pandemic-driven Shutdown continues to forestall meaningful Economic Rebound into 2023 or beyond, in context of ever-evolving COVID-19 and related circumstances, and the evolving Russia-Ukraine conflict. These capabilities build on existing components, like the barometer, which can now detect cabin pressure changes, the GPS for additional input for speed changes, and the microphone,4 which can recognize loud noises typified by severe car crashes. At their most dramatic in summer 2021, used car prices climbed by a scorching 45 percent compared to the prior year (and 10 percent compared to the prior month). For the first time ever, the Pro lineup features a new 48MP Main camera with a quad-pixel sensor that adapts to the photo being captured, and features second-generation sensor-shift optical image stabilization. Full detail and related graphics follow in this weeks Commentary. Published 14 September 2022. He received an A.B. As a result, the U.S. unemployment Discussed during the November 14th week, October 2022 Existing Home Sales showed deepening annual and monthly collapse, as did October New Residential Construction (Building Permits and Housing Starts). Further discussion also follows in the sections covering the LATEST NUMBERS, HEADLINE DETAILS and SYSTEMIC RISK FEDERAL RESERVE. Home; Subjects; Data Tools; Publications; Economic Releases; Classroom; Beta; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics OEUS/JOLTS, PSB Suite 4840 PSB Suite 4160 2 Massachusetts Avenue NE Washington, DC 20212-0001 As Dr. David Kaufman, a physician who has spent years treating post-viral illnesses, including long Covid, told me, The post-pandemic crisis cannot be addressed without thousands more physicians encouraged, trained, and supported to treat patients with these chronic complex diseases., Of course, physicians need treatments to offer, and for that, we need research into the causes of enduring post-Covid illness. , labor market participation is still around 1 percentage point lower than demographics would predict. Social Security on Thursday announced an 8.7 percent cost of living adjustment for retirees, the largest inflation adjustment to benefits in four decades a welcome development for millions of older Americans struggling to keep up with fast-rising living costs. Under current FRB/ FOMC policies, headline economic activity should continue to falter, and inflation should continue to soar (expanded economic specifics are detailed in the later OPENING HEADLINE and LATEST NUMBERS Sections). But such whipsaw moves have also simply become more common this year, as data on the U.S. economy has collided with technical factors in markets around how investors are positioned for sharp moves higher or lower, and whether they exacerbate or reduce them. With Photonic Engine, the new 48MP Main camera sees up to 2x improvement in mid- to low-light environments. Remove all. Users can pause a video on any frame and interact with text. Nonetheless, the quality of government reporting has deteriorated sharply in the last couple of decades. Broad U.S. economic activity still has not recovered from that earlier. -- Systemic Liquidity. His study cited research that 12% to 17% of COVID-19 patients are still experiencing three or more symptoms 12 weeks after onset, and that the labor force reduction among those with significant impairment is 70%. These numbers remain bullish for accelerating Inflation, where the surging Money Supply numbers reflect FOMC Monetary Stimulus in place, net of Fed Tapering, Balance Sheet Reduction and in the context of recent, and continuing extreme Interest Rate hikes. Consider the successive last four quarterly (Dec 2021, Mar, Jun and Sep 2022) FOMC Meeting forecasts as to where the year-to-year Fourth-Quarter 2022 GDP growth would end-up: December 2021 FOMC forecast was 4.0%, March 2022 FOMC dropped it to 3.4%, June 2022 FOMC dropped it to 2.8%, the September 2022 dropped to 0.2% [Nov 2, 2022 update: Despite pre-election games with headline Third-Quarter 2022 GDP, an annual contraction come the Fourth-Quarter 2022 GDP headline remains a good bet. May 2021 National Occupational Employment and Wage Estimates. The level of revenue passenger miles was their primary sales forecasting tool, and the model was heavily dependent on the GNP (now GDP) as reported by the Department of Commerce. That said, seasonally adjusted November 2022 Payrolls gained at a slowing 263,000 jobs in month, up by 1,044,000 since the March 2020 Pre-Pandemic Peak. How many people have been vaccinated? Such does not add any credibility to the highly distorted and orchestrated Trade-Deficit driven Third-Quarter 2022 Gross Domestic Product rebound to annualized quarterly growth of an upwardly revised 2.9%, more than fully accounted for by extreme trade-number games [also see the subsequent December 6th Trade Deficit comments). In the US, 613 million doses administered, with 152 million doses in the U.K. and 89.8 million in Canada The increase in energy prices could pose a challenge for the Federal Reserve by complicating its campaign to lower interest rates to bring down inflation. WebYet, that robust headline Payroll Employment just minimally recovered its Pre-Pandemic level two months ago, in headline August 2022 reporting. Now that the Administration has backed off playing its pre-Election inflation games with oil prices, watch for continuing, excessive headline inflation to resume its upside surge in the months ahead, with the U.S. Economy increasingly sacked by FOMC rate hikes. Satellites are moving targets with low bandwidth, and it can take minutes for messages to get through. The vaxxes do not work or To give a sense of the magnitude: If the long Covid population increases by just 10% each year, in 10 years, the annual cost of lost wages will be half a trillion dollars. Underlying Economic and Labor Numbers through November Indicate Contracting or Flattening Fourth-Quarter 2020 GDP, Well Shy of Economic Recovery Again, with the recovery from the Pandemic-driven collapse still flub-a-dubbing, continued extraordinary Monetary and Fiscal Stimulus likely will continue through 2022 and well into 2023, despite Financial-Market huffing and puffing to the contrary, and bi-furcated FOMC happy hype. Best Wishes -- John Williams O P E N I N G .. H E A D LI N E S - A sampling of the most recent ECONOMIC, INFLATION, FEDERAL RESERVE (Monetary) and POLITICAL Headlines: SHADOWSTATS DAILY UPDATE - December 9th to 12th [Updated December 9th, 6:15 p.m. December 2020 Real Retail Sales Declined for the Third Straight Month, and Fourth-Quarter 2020 Activity Relapsed into Quarterly Contraction There are a lot of people out there looking for peak inflation and a slowdown from the Fed on rate hikes, but the data is not in their favor, said Charlie Ripley, a senior investment strategist at Allianz Investment Management. total separations . Such does not add any credibility to the highly distorted and orchestrated Trade-Deficit driven Third-Quarter 2022 Gross Domestic Product rebound to annualized quarterly growth of an upwardly revised 2.9%, more than fully accounted for by extreme trade-number games [also see the subsequent December 6th Trade Deficit comments). A16 Bionic features an accelerated 5-core GPU with 50 percent more memory bandwidth perfect for graphics-intensive games and apps and a new 16-core Neural Engine capable of nearly 17 trillion operations per second. Others: Consumer Liquidity, Depression, Money Supply. Inflation indexing cannot go beyond 3.5% in any given year. Food prices climb again, weighing on household budgets. Congress could also consider more targeted policies, potentially even with government support for small employers. 2.) The New York Times examined the back story of Social Securitys inflation adjustment how it works, how it could be revised and how it affects pocketbooks. We need knowledgeable, affordable health care providers to help them recover, or at least improve. The November 2022 Producer Price Index Final Demand Goods Inflation softened year-to-year to 9.6%, from 10.5% in October, still up by a steepening 25.4% from its pre-Pandemic level. SO PLEASE HELP US WIN THIS FIGHT FLASH (November 15th, released November 14th): The October 2022 Cass Freight Index declined by an unadjusted 1.4% (-1.4%) in the month, up by 0.3% seasonally adjusted, having declined by 2.9% (-2.9%) both adjusted and unadjusted in September, with unadjusted annual growth slowing to 2.9% in October, from 4.8% in September. Available in 6.1-inch and 6.7-inch sizes,1 both models include a new Super Retina XDR display with ProMotion that features the Always-On display for the first time ever on iPhone, enabled by a new 1Hz refresh rate and multiple power-efficient technologies. Four colorful lollipops are shot in close-up. Image: Activision Nick Statt. In another case, a 32-year-old Indigenous woman died from a fentanyl overdose. Discussed previously here, the headline third-quarter bounce in GDP activity fully was accounted for by an orchestrated, temporary flipping of what otherwise would have been a deficit in Third-Quarter Net Exports, to a surplus, directly tied to the Administrations coincident depletion and exports of much of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, pre-Election. Accordingly, the April 2021 to October 2022 growth rates here generally are shown against that February 2020 PPT, instead of year-to-year. Fed Chair Powell Noted That Surging Money Supply No Longer Boosts the Economy Per Cass, Normal seasonality from here would have shipments slowing to flat y/y in November, down 5% y/y in December, and about flat for the year. - DEPLETION OF THE STRATEGIC PETROLEUM RESERVE ALSO GETS CREDIT FOR RECENT HEADLINE GDP GROWTH. Other separations includes separations due to retirement, death, disability, and transfers to other locations of the same firm. We carried out our annual survey of Scroll down for the latest ShadowStats Outlook, Headline Economic News and Background Information on the U.S. Economy, Financial System (FOMC), Financial Markets and Alternate Data, also for publicly available Special Reports and contact information. The more-liquid the Money measure, at present, the greater the growth and the greater the upside pressure on inflation. [] Britain has suffered 39k Excess Deaths in the past 6 months Why are so many people dying? October 2022 Money Supply -- As reported this afternoon by the Federal Reserve Board (FRB), amidst minimal revisions to the headline M2 and its components, the October 2022 level of the most-liquid and most-inflation-driving Money Supply measure Basic M1 (Currency plus Demand Deposits [checking accounts]), net of all the Savings Account gimmicks the Fed put in when it redefined M1 from 19% of to 88% of M2 back in 2021), notching slightly lower in October to 120.3, from 121.5 in September and its all-time peak 123.3% in August 2022, versus its February 2020 Pre-Pandemic Trough (PPT). The Employment series is based on actual Payroll Taxes paid by Employers, as opposed to irregular (Pandemic-induced, telephone-only) impaired surveys of the Public as to Unemployment. Visual Look Up takes photos further by introducing a new feature that allows users to tap and hold on the subject of an image to lift it from the background and place it in apps like Messages. FLASH (November 10th): Despite seasonally adjusted monthly gasoline prices turning positive for the month, October 2022 Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) unadjusted year-to-year inflation eased to a headline 7.75%, versus 8.20% in September, from 8.26% in August, 8.53% in July and its near-term peak 9.06% in June, otherwise still at a 41-year high, while the September 2022 Annual ShadowStats Alternate Corrected CPI Inflation eased in parallel to 15.9% in October, from 16.4% in September, 16.5% in August, 16.8% in July and 17.3% in June, otherwise still at a 75-Year high, all on top of year-to-year gasoline price inflation pulling back to annual 17.5% in October, from a peak of 59.9% in June. EARLY DECEMBER 2022 CONSUMER SENTIMENT -- The University of Michigans early December 2022 Index reading of Consumer Sentiment rose 4% above November, recovering most of the losses from November but remaining low from a historical perspective, (December 9th, go to http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu for full details). Evolving Circumstances Remain Extremely Strong for Gold and Silver, and Weak for the U.S. Dollar and Stocks, Despite Central Bank or Other Systemic Machinations to the Contrary, Intractable and Deteriorating Conditions Still Signal No Imminent Economic Recovery, Irrespective of Some Bounces in March Activity Against Weather-Driven February Collapses Noted regularly here, New Home Sales is one of the least-reliable, least-meaningful and least-significant series that Census publishes. Minimizing Reporting of Such, the Fed Just Redefined Money Supply M1; Given Newly Defined M1-Like Liquidity Characteristics for M2 Savings Deposits, Savings Have Been Shifted Retroactively from M2 to into M1, Effective as of May 2020 Until we have such vaccines, it makes good economic sense to encourage or mandate the use of. The price index picked up by 0.4 percent from August, double what economists had expected, and the core measure rose by 0.6 percent on a monthly basis. Got a story you think the public needs to hear? Liquidity-Strapped Consumers Move to Cash, Spiking Traditional Money Supply M1 Many segments and regions of the U.S. economy, and individual, personal circumstances have suffered, and continue to suffer severe structural damage from the shutdown, areas that likely will take years to recover fully. Separately, the current pace of monthly growth in Payrolls is consistent with a potential return to full pre-Pandemic conditions in about four years, around Third-Quarter 2026. It may also be true that Microsoft is simply so big and its pockets so deep that its An index for food at employee sites and schools soared 44.9 percent in September, as free school lunch programs expired. 1.) The number of unemployed persons was essentially unchanged at 6.0 million in November. could push many people into a lower tax bracket and reduce tax bills, affect the size of your paycheck next year. For the Second Straight Month, Payrolls Declined Year-to-Year by 6.0% (-6.0%) LinkedIn. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) publishes weekly figures on deaths registered in England and Wales. iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max are shown in gold. Of those, 2 to 4 million are out of work due to long Covid. Users can edit a message for up to 15 minutes after sending it and can unsend a message for up to two minutes after sending it. Walter J. - Looking further back into Novembers reporting, October Real Construction Spending continued in annual collapse, on early track for its fifth straight quarter of year-to-year decline. Technical notes . 2021 Social Security Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA) Could Spike to a 40-Year High, Based on Potential Third-Quarter 2021 CPI-W The most recent data shows deaths up to 28th October 2022. WebWatch breaking news videos, viral videos and original video clips on CNN.com. Underlying Fundamentals Remain Extremely Strong for Gold and Silver, and Weak for the U.S. Dollar and Stocks, Despite Central Bank or Other Systemic Machinations to the Contrary, January 2021 Manufacturing Declined Year-to-Year for the 19th Consecutive Month, Still in the Downturn Induced by the FOMC 15 Months Before the Pandemic Collapse document.getElementById( "ak_js_1" ).setAttribute( "value", ( new Date() ).getTime() ); document.getElementById( "ak_js_2" ).setAttribute( "value", ( new Date() ).getTime() ); WHY SO MANY MORE DEAD? The value of corporate bonds and loans has tumbled. B U S I N E S S .. C Y C L E -- RECESSION-DEPRESSION TIMING Updated September 21, 2021 -- The 2020 Economic Collapse Remains Far from full Recovery. All posted Commentaries also are available in, or accessible from, the upper left-hand column of this www.shadowstats.com Home Page. in Economics, cum laude, from Dartmouth College in 1971, and was awarded a M.B.A. from Dartmouth's Amos Tuck School of Business Administration in 1972, where he was named an Edward Tuck Scholar. Last Modified Date: Please click here FOMC rate-hikes (post-Great Recession) triggered a heretofore unrecognized 2018 economic downturn/ slowdown, which was ongoing into the onset of the March 2020 Pandemic Shutdown of the U.S. Economy, and, again, which still has not recovered 2018 peak levels of activity. Adding long Covid questions to the Household Pulse Survey was a start; however, policymakers also need to understand the impact of long Covid on work and the role that SSDI plays in alleviating the conditions burden. I N F L A T I O N - FLASH (December 9th): The original Producer Price Index Series - Finished Goods, which goes back to 1947, as published, continued to show slowing, year-to-year inflation, along with its third consecutive monthly gain, coming into November 2022, broadly in line with numbers from the parallel history of the current headline PPI-FD, since 2009. Should I use all my inheritance for a down payment? So, of the 16.3 million working-age Americans with long Covid, we can assume 12.2 million were in the labor force. So we downloaded their dataset, which you can find here, to deduce just how many people have really died over the past 6 months compared to the five-year average.. Federal Reserve Sees Continuing Need for Inflation-Boosting Monetary Stimulus, With No Economic Recovery Expected Before 2023 Despite Happy Headline Gains in January 2021 Real Retail Sales, Production and Construction, the Underlying Payroll Employment Numbers Tell the Opposite Story Searching for glimmers of hope in the disappointing data, Mr. Biden noted that headline inflation had averaged an annual rate of 2 percent over the last three months, which is a notable deceleration from the 11 percent in the prior quarter. The following chart 33 percent of public schools offered full-time remote instruction to any students in June 2022. 71 No. Soplease support us in our efforts to bring you honest, reliable, investigative journalismtoday. Around the world, cracks are emerging that are amplifying investors worries. Live Text uses on-device intelligence to recognize text in images across iOS, and it is now expanding to include video. These capabilities build on existing components, like the barometer, which can now detect cabin pressure changes, the GPS for additional input for speed changes, and the microphone. Old Numbers Showed Production Peaked in December 2018 and Flattened Out, February 2020 Pre-Pandemic Peak Was 3.75% Higher Than the Pre-Great Recession Peak Previously noted here, and specifically reviewed for subscribers in todays (November 2nd) opening eleven paragraphs [please read if you have not], FOMC activity openly has been shifted and targeted to triggering a Recession, ostensibly to help contain inflation being driven by a nonsensical overheating economy, where the mounting inflation pressures primarily are due to continuing, extreme levels of Money Supply creation. This report uses HPS data rather than Current Population Survey (CPS) datawhich is generally more robustbecause the HPS, , and the CPS does not. In October, the number of . The number of total separations changed little in all industries. COVID QUACKCINES! (November 16th) OCTOBER 2022 RETAIL SALES -- Consistent with slowing consumer activity, surging inflation and a contracting economy, inflation-adjusted Third-Quarter 2022 Real Retail Sales contracted at an annualized 2.3%% (-2.3%) pace, following an annualized 0.4% gain in Second-Quarter 2022, with a Third-Quarter 2022 year-to-year gain of 1.0%, following a Second-Quarter 2022 decline of 0.1% (-0.1%) (Census Bureau). I make $80,000 and have $220,000 in student debt. The effect of this reporting gimmick is to mute energy driven inflationary pressures in the aggregate, modern (post 2009) headline Final Demand PPI; ShadowStats views that Services Sector number as having negligible if any economic significance. This delivers optical quality at a familiar focal length, which is great for features like Portrait mode. HPS survey found that 16.3 million people (around 8%) of working-age Americans currently have long Covid. That said, again, Fiscal Years 2021 and 2022 (FY 2021, FY 2022) circumstances and prospects have continued to deteriorate meaningfully, at an accelerating pace, from conditions at the end of FY 2020 (see the next paragraph), exploding anew into the still unfolding, disastrous FY 2022. Data on the conditions prevalence was limited, so the report used various studies to make a conservative estimate: 1.6 million full-time equivalent workers could be out of work due to long Covid. The October year-to-tear decline was 8.7% (-8.7%, versus Septembers revised 10.5% (-10.5%) [previously 9.9% (-9.9%)], and Augusts revised near-term record annual drop of 11.0% (-11.0%) [previously 10.5% (-10.5%)], all consistent with a continuing and intensifying sharp new pullback in broad U.S. economic activity. WebWatch breaking news videos, viral videos and original video clips on CNN.com. Discussions on the inflation threat and re-accelerating money growth are found in Special Hyperinflation Commentary, Issue No. We continue to see complaints about iPhone 11, iPhone 11 Pro, and iPhone 11 Pro Max problems as we push deeper into 2022. Central bankers have raised interest rates five times this year and are expected to make a fourth jumbo sized, three-quarter-point move at their meeting on November 2. iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max will be available in, Emergency SOS via satellite will be available starting in the, Customers in the US can get ready for iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max pre-orders until 10 p.m. PDT on Thursday, September 8, by visiting. Indeed, the Administrations release of oil from, and the extraordinary depletion of, the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) not only temporarily softened excessively high inflation into September and October 2022, but it also narrowed the Third-Quarter 2022 U.S. Trade Deficit enough, given largely unadvertised exports of related oil, to generate a temporary boost to the Third-Quarter 2022 GDP, just prior to the November 8th Mid-Term Elections. With headline inflation driven by explosive Money Supply growth and various Pandemic issues, not by the Feds overheating economy scapegoat, the economy already is in what should become recognized as a deepening recession (see the various GDP coverage). While we do not know for sure why more disabled people are participating in the labor force, one likely explanation is the pandemic shift to remote work, which makes employment more accessible for many with disabilities. Reporting Given the underlying moribund Economy, raising rates further [as being jawboned and promised by the Fed Chairman, among other FOMC members] likely will only exacerbate deteriorating economic conditions, without providing any meaningful inflation relief. Her Majesty The Queen's coffin leaves Balmoral Castle. Therefore, Great Britain has suffered 39,121 excess deaths since the middle of April 2022. However, the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention collects information on deaths involving many of the more commonly used drugs available through 2020 at a searchable database, called CDC Wonder.The NCHS also has 12 month Unfortunately, such accommodations are likely to be most difficult to pursue for the people who need it most: low-wage workers, who often live paycheck to paycheck and cant afford to lose earnings. October Industrial Production declined by 0.1% (-0.1%) in the month, on top of sharp downside revisions to recent months, with last months Capacity Utilization recovery of its prior August 2018 peak level, evaporating, in conjunction with meaningful downside revisions to the last five months of production activity. Published 14 September 2022. The Expose - Nobody's Word, UK: 39k excess deaths in the past 6 months + UK: Hancock orchestrated genocide of the elderly & vulnerable + Quercetin treats cardiovascular disease & certain cancers + 1 in every 310 people died within 1.5 mo. On early track for continuing quarterly declines in Fourth-Quarter 2022, October 2022 Building Permits dropped month-to-month and year-to-year respectively by a statistically meaningful 4.2% (-4.2%) and 8.8% (-8.8%). 1461]. STAY WELL NATURALLY! You cannot tell the difference between flu and COVID-19 by symptoms alone because some of the symptoms are the same. Payroll-Employment Benchmark Revisions Showed a Deepening, Accelerating Decline into an April 2020 Trough, With Renewed Deterioration at Present; Recovery from the Pandemic Shutdown Has Stalled and/or Is Regressing Where January 2021 Year-to-Year Manufacturing Contracted by 1.0% (-1.0%), It Also Contracted by 1.8% (-1.8%) from January 2019, Two Years Ago Also previously discussed here, FOMC rate hikes aimed at curtailing inflation in an overheating economy do little of the kind, if the economy is not overheating (the current circumstance). Read more . Beyond Year One, Multi-Year, Crisis-Driven Collapses Need to Be Assessed Against Pre-Crisis Levels, or Stacked Two-Year Change, As Well As Year-to-Year Change Food inflation in the United States has remained stubbornly high this year, eroding the spending power of consumers and weighing heavily on lower-income Americans, who spend a greater proportion of their income on grocery bills. Manufacturing Sector Has Never Recovered Pre-Great Recession Peak Levels The Committee anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate in order to attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2 percent over time. In January 2022, Brookings Metro published a report that assessed the impact of long Covid on the labor market. Producer price index percent changes and weights for Final Demand - Intermediate Demand groupings, seasonally adjusted, Table 2. In most jurisdictions, such periods exist for both criminal law and civil law such as contract law and property law, though often under different names and with varying U.S. government bond yields surged markedly higher, adding to the turbulence. Similarly, the revised annualized quarterly Third-Quarter 2022 IPD at 4.38% [previously 3.79%] collapsed from 9.10% in Third-Quarter 2022. That said, in Business Cycle definitions, an economic downturn traditionally has been known as a Depression, which has two components the Recession and the Recovery. After the economic terror of the Great Depression, economic downturns took on the less-frightening Recession nomenclature. The sharp moves have added to investors fear that the Feds campaign of large rate increases could push markets closer to a financial accident, similar to the shock waves in British markets in recent weeks. Aside from some short-term reporting gimmicks, Payroll Employment probably is the highest-quality economic statistic published by the U.S. Government, at present, given current data and the reporting-compromised conditions of the still-evolving Pandemic. If we exclude that 50%, we are left with around 17 million people who may currently have long Covidvery near the HPS estimate of 16.3 million.4. The annual inflation adjustment has been awarded since 1975 under a formula legislated by Congress. With the introduction of the Dynamic Island, the TrueDepth camera has been redesigned to take up less of the display area. Beginning 1-1-2023, small businesses will be required to pay the regular state minimum wage. Per Cass: Normal seasonality from here would have shipments slowing to flat y/y in November, down 5% y/y in December, and about flat for the year.. Services include customized forecasts and analyses of the general economy, presentations and consultations in-house for clients. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective. 1460a and 1460b (linked at the top left-column of this www.shadowstats.com home page (or otherwise as available at: http://www.shadowstats.com/article/csgs1460a.pdf and http://www.shadowstats.com/article/cfc1460b.pdf ). Beyond the varying impact of volatile gasoline prices, headline October inflation numbers continued in context of soaring inflation, triggered by the Pandemic-related explosive growth in the Federal Reserves Money Supply creation and in the Federal Governments Deficit Spending and related Federal Debt Expansion. The war and related events are creating additional upward pressure on inflation and are weighing on global economic activity. City employees hand out unemployment applications on April 8, 2020, in Hialeah, Florida. By some metrics, inflation is hitting new highs. the Plunge Protection Team), or as otherwise being gamed by the Federal Reserve.. October 2022 PPI Finished Goods inflation (the only meaningful PPI aggregate) turned higher month-to-month in October, but eased in November along with lower gasoline prices. 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